The Future of Iran's Oil and Its Economic Implications

The Future of Iran's Oil and Its Economic Implications
October 2016
Pooya Azadi
Hassan Dehghanpour
Mehran Sohrabi
Kaveh Madani
Stanford Iran 2040 Project

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The unprecedented global support for policies to reduce carbon emissions along with the emergence of new technologies for extraction of oil from unconventional resources have made it increasingly unlikely that Iran’s oil reserves will ever be exhausted. As such, determining the real amounts of Iran’s oil endowments and reserves – which have long been a subject of controversy – is of little practical value now. Rather, focus should be devoted to assess the rate at which Iran can recover oil given its mature fields and underinvested infrastructure.
Herein, we present a field-by-field analysis of Iran’s crude oil production history and its future projections to 2040. A total of 98 oil fields and reservoirs with a cumulative production of 72 billion barrels since 1913 are considered. Future projections are made based upon the current status of active fields and their existing infrastructure, ongoing and announced projects, and potential production augmentations from undeveloped and undiscovered fields.